Could the Ukrainian war be a prelude to a new Arab Spring?

The price of bread in the Middle East continues to rise due to interruptions in wheat supplies from Ukraine and Russia. Rising bread prices in the past have led to violent protests and political upheaval.

A series of demonstrations has begun. Last week, thousands of people in Nasiriyah, southern Iraq, protested against rising prices for bread, coking oil and other daily necessities. Prices of products imported into Iraq have risen by 50% since the start of the war in Ukraine.

Thousands of Sudanese took to the streets this week. While they were angry with the military government, they are also protesting against the price of bread, which has risen by almost 50%.

The rise in bread prices is the result of a Russian military invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine is one of the largest producers and exporters of wheat in the world. It is also the largest exporter of oil. About half of Ukraine's wheat exports go to Middle Eastern countries. Russia is the largest exporter of wheat in the world.

Market analysts say the war has affected exports to both Russia and Ukraine and has pushed up wheat prices. Last month alone, it rose 50 percent, the highest in 14 years. It is now beginning to have an extraordinary effect on the countries of the Middle East.

Bread is the cause of revolutions in the past

In the past, rising bread prices have been a precursor to political change in the region.

Egypt, for example, has a history of the Intifada al-Khabz, meaning "bread revolution". Subsidies were abolished in 1977 in the name of economic reform, which pushed up food prices. At least 70 people were killed in the protests.

During the Arab Spring in 2011, "bread, freedom and social justice" was the popular slogan. As a result of these demonstrations, Hosni Mubarak had to step down.

Experts investigating the Arab Spring say that in addition to public frustration with dictators, rising food prices and food insecurity were also key factors in political change.

This process is still going on. Protests erupted in Sudan in 2019 when Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir tripled the price of bread and eventually ousted him.

Analysts at the US think tank Middle East Institute said in a report in February that the crisis in Ukraine, amid rising energy and food prices, could lead to new protests and instability in several Middle Eastern countries. "